Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Impact of Investor's Varying Risk Aversion on the Dynamics of Asset Price Fluctuations

While the investors' responses to price changes and their price forecasts are well accepted major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors' heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We propose and study a model of an artificial stock market consisting of heterogeneous agents with DRA, and we find that DRA is the main driving force for excess price fluctuations and the associated volatility clustering. We employ a popular power utility function, $U(c,\gamma)=\frac{c^{1-\gamma}-1}{1-\gamma}$ with agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index, $\gamma_i(t)$, and we derive an approximate formula for the demand function and aggregate price setting equation. The dynamics of each agent's risk aversion index, $\gamma_i(t)$ (i=1,2,...,N), is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance $\delta^2$. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the ``stylized'' facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is a key mechanism for the emergence of these stylized facts.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

Electronic adherence monitoring device performance and patient acceptability: a randomized control trial

BACKGROUND: To investigate the performance and patient acceptability of an inhaler electronic monitoring device in a real-world childhood asthma population. METHODS: Children 6 to 15 years presenting with asthma to the hospital emergency department and prescribed inhaled corticosteroids were included. Participants were randomized to receive a device with reminder features enabled or disabled for use with their preventer. Device quality control tests were conducted. Questionnaires on device acceptability, utility and ergonomics were completed at six months. RESULTS: A total of 1306 quality control tests were conducted; 84% passed pre-issue and 87% return testing. The most common failure reason was actuation under-recording. Acceptability scores were high, with higher scores in the reminder than non-reminder group (median, 5th-95th percentile: 4.1, 3.1–5.0 versus 3.7, 2.3–4.8; p 90%) rated the device easy to use. Feedback was positive across five themes: device acceptability, ringtone acceptability, suggestions for improvement, effect on medication use, and effect on asthma control. CONCLUSIONS: This study investigates electronic monitoring device performance and acceptability in children using quantitative and qualitative measures. Results indicate satisfactory reliability, although failure rates of 13–16% indicate the importance of quality control. Favorable acceptability ratings support the use of these devices in children

Migration drivers and migration choice: interrogating responses to migration and development interventions in West Africa

The notion of migration as being at least partly about ‘choice’ is deeply rooted in both academic thought and public policy. Recent contributions have considered migration choice as step-wise in nature, involving a separation between ‘aspiration’ and ‘ability’ to migrate, whilst stressing a range of non-economic factors that influence migration choices. But such nuances have not prevented the emergence of a significant area of public policy that seeks to influence choices to migrate from Africa through ‘irregular’ channels, or at all, through a range of development interventions. This paper explores evidence from West Africa on how young people formulate the boundaries of such choice. Drawing on approaches in anthropology and elsewhere that stress the value of a ‘future-orientated’ lens, we show how present uncertainty is a central framing that fundamentally limits the value of thinking about migration as a choice. This has important implications for policy on ‘migration and development’

Basket Cases and Breadbaskets: Sacred Rice and Agricultural Development in Postcolonial Africa

Author's final manuscript.Based on ethnographic research among rural Diola in Guinea-Bissau, I provide a broad view of the history and interpenetration of rice in social, political, religious, and ecological domains, while chronicling the current difficulties of residents in this region who are no longer able to grown enough of it. These farmers’ experiences are unfolding at a time of revitalized attention to agricultural development in Africa, particularly under the auspices of the New Green Revolution for Africa. I examine the premises that constitute the resuscitated effort to address the plight of African farmers. I argue that the totalizing quality of rice in Diola and other rice-cultivating societies requires a development approach that takes into account dimensions of agrarian life not encapsulated by the high- modernist and anti-political orientation of the New Green Revolution for Africa

Telomere disruption results in non-random formation of de novo dicentric chromosomes involving acrocentric human chromosomes

Copyright: © 2010 Stimpson et al.Genome rearrangement often produces chromosomes with two centromeres (dicentrics) that are inherently unstable because of bridge formation and breakage during cell division. However, mammalian dicentrics, and particularly those in humans, can be quite stable, usually because one centromere is functionally silenced. Molecular mechanisms of centromere inactivation are poorly understood since there are few systems to experimentally create dicentric human chromosomes. Here, we describe a human cell culture model that enriches for de novo dicentrics. We demonstrate that transient disruption of human telomere structure non-randomly produces dicentric fusions involving acrocentric chromosomes. The induced dicentrics vary in structure near fusion breakpoints and like naturally-occurring dicentrics, exhibit various inter-centromeric distances. Many functional dicentrics persist for months after formation. Even those with distantly spaced centromeres remain functionally dicentric for 20 cell generations. Other dicentrics within the population reflect centromere inactivation. In some cases, centromere inactivation occurs by an apparently epigenetic mechanism. In other dicentrics, the size of the alpha-satellite DNA array associated with CENP-A is reduced compared to the same array before dicentric formation. Extrachromosomal fragments that contained CENP-A often appear in the same cells as dicentrics. Some of these fragments are derived from the same alpha-satellite DNA array as inactivated centromeres. Our results indicate that dicentric human chromosomes undergo alternative fates after formation. Many retain two active centromeres and are stable through multiple cell divisions. Others undergo centromere inactivation. This event occurs within a broad temporal window and can involve deletion of chromatin that marks the locus as a site for CENP-A maintenance/replenishment.This work was supported by the Tumorzentrum Heidelberg/Mannheim grant (D.10026941)and by March of Dimes Research Foundation grant #1-FY06-377 and NIH R01 GM069514

Stretching the Rules: Monocentric Chromosomes with Multiple Centromere Domains

The centromere is a functional chromosome domain that is essential for faithful chromosome segregation during cell division and that can be reliably identified by the presence of the centromere-specific histone H3 variant CenH3. In monocentric chromosomes, the centromere is characterized by a single CenH3-containing region within a morphologically distinct primary constriction. This region usually spans up to a few Mbp composed mainly of centromere-specific satellite DNA common to all chromosomes of a given species. In holocentric chromosomes, there is no primary constriction; the centromere is composed of many CenH3 loci distributed along the entire length of a chromosome. Using correlative fluorescence light microscopy and high-resolution electron microscopy, we show that pea (Pisum sativum) chromosomes exhibit remarkably long primary constrictions that contain 3-5 explicit CenH3-containing regions, a novelty in centromere organization. In addition, we estimate that the size of the chromosome segment delimited by two outermost domains varies between 69 Mbp and 107 Mbp, several factors larger than any known centromere length. These domains are almost entirely composed of repetitive DNA sequences belonging to 13 distinct families of satellite DNA and one family of centromeric retrotransposons, all of which are unevenly distributed among pea chromosomes. We present the centromeres of Pisum as novel ``meta-polycentric'' functional domains. Our results demonstrate that the organization and DNA composition of functional centromere domains can be far more complex than previously thought, do not require single repetitive elements, and do not require single centromere domains in order to segregate properly. Based on these findings, we propose Pisum as a useful model for investigation of centromere architecture and the still poorly understood role of repetitive DNA in centromere evolution, determination, and function

Clinical risk factor assessment had better discriminative ability than bone mineral density in identifying subjects with vertebral fracture

Summary: This study evaluated the characteristics of patients with vertebral fractures and examined the discriminative ability of clinical risk factors. The findings provide further insights into possible development of a simple, cost-effective scheme for fracture risk assessment using clinical risk factors to identify high-risk patients for further evaluation. Introduction: Vertebral fractures are the most common complication of osteoporosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of patients with vertebral fractures and to determine the discriminative ability of bone mineral density (BMD) and other clinical risk factors. Methods: Postmenopausal Southern Chinese women (2,178) enrolled in the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study since 1995 were prospectively followed up for fracture outcome. Subjects (1,372) with lateral spine radiographs were included in this study. Baseline demographic, BMD, and clinical risk factor information were obtained from a structured questionnaire. Results: Subjects (299; 22%) had prevalent vertebral fractures. The prevalence of vertebral fractures increased with increasing age, number of clinical risk factors, and decreasing BMD. The odds of having a prevalent vertebral fracture per SD reduction in BMD after adjustment for age in Hong Kong Southern Chinese postmenopausal women was 1.5 for the lumbar spine and femoral neck. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve revealed that bone mineral apparent density did not enhance fracture risk prediction. Subjects with ≥4 clinical risk factors had 2.3-fold higher odds of having a prevalent vertebral fracture while subjects with ≥4 clinical risk factors plus a low BMD (i.e., femoral neck T-score <-2.5) had 2.6-fold. Addition of BMD to clinical risk factors did not enhance the discriminative ability to identify subjects with vertebral fracture. Conclusions: Based on these findings, we recommend that screening efforts should focus on older postmenopausal women with multiple risk factors to identify women who are likely to have a prevalent vertebral fracture. © 2010 The Author(s).published_or_final_versionSpringer Open Choice, 21 Feb 201

BioLPG for Clean Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Future Feasibility of Technologies, Feedstocks, Enabling Conditions and Financing

Energy supply for clean cooking is a priority for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, i.e., propane or butane or a mixture of both) is an economically efficient, cooking energy solution used by over 2.5 billion people worldwide and scaled up in numerous low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Investigation of the technical, policy, economic and physical requirements of producing LPG from renewable feedstocks (bioLPG) finds feasibility at scale in Africa. Biogas and syngas from the circular economic repurposing of municipal solid waste and agricultural waste can be used in two groundbreaking new chemical processes (Cool LPG or Integrated Hydropyrolysis and Hydroconversion (IH2)) to selectively produce bioLPG. Evidence about the nature and scale potential of bioLPG presented in this study justifies further investment in the development of bioLPG as a fuel that can make a major contribution toward enabling an SSA green economy and universal energy access. Techno-economic assessments of five potential projects from Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda illustrate what might be possible. BioLPG technology is in the early days of development, so normal technology piloting and de-risking need to be undertaken. However, fully developed bioLPG production could greatly reduce the public and private sector investment required to significantly increase SSA clean cooking capacity